Initiation of warfarin is associated with decreased mortality in patients with infective endocarditis: A population-based cohort study.

IMPORTANCE: The use of warfarin to prevent thromboembolism in patients with infective endocarditis (IE) remains controversial due to potentially increased bleeding risks. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 18 or older and diagnosed with IE in Hong Kong between January 1st, 1997 and August 31st, 2020 were included. Patients with use of any anticoagulant 30 days before IE diagnosis were excluded. Patients initiated on warfarin within 14 days of IE diagnosis and patients without warfarin use were matched for baseline characteristics using 1:1 propensity score matching. EXPOSURE: Warfarin use within 14 days of IE diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Patients were followed up to 90 days for the outcomes of ischemic stroke, all-cause mortality, intracranial hemorrhage, and gastrointestinal bleeding. Cox regression was used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) [95 % confidence intervals (CIs)] between treatment groups. Fine-Gray competing risk regression with all-cause mortality as the competing event was performed as a sensitivity analysis. In addition to 90-day analyses, landmark analyses were performed at 30 days of follow-up. RESULTS: The matched cohort consisted of 675 warfarin users (57.0 % male, age 59 ± 16 years) and 675 warfarin non-users (53.5 % male, age 61 ± 19 years). Warfarin users had a 50 % decreased 90-day risk in all-cause mortality (HR:0.50 [0.39-0.65]), without significantly different 90-day risks of ischemic stroke (HR:1.04 [0.70-1.53]), intracranial hemorrhage (HR:1.25 [0.77-2.04]), and gastrointestinal bleeding (HR:1.04 [0.60-1.78]). Thirty-day landmark analysis showed similar results. Competing risk regression showed significantly higher 30-day cumulative incidence of intracranial hemorrhage in warfarin users (sub-HR:3.34 [1.34-8.31]), but not at 90-day (sub-HR:1.63 [0.95-2.81]). Results from Fine-Gray regression were otherwise congruent with those from Cox regression. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Warfarin initiated within 14 days of IE diagnosis was associated with significantly decreased risks of mortality but higher risks of intracranial hemorrhage, with similar risks of ischemic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding, compared with non-use of warfarin with 14 days of IE diagnosis. KEY POINTS: Question: Is warfarin, initiated within 14 days of a diagnosis of infective endocarditis (IE), efficacious and safe? FINDINGS: In this propensity score-matched, population-based, prospective cohort study from Hong Kong, warfarin use within 14 days of IE diagnosis was associated with a 50 % decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality, albeit with higher risk of intracranial hemorrhage, and without significant differences in the risk of ischaemic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding. Meaning: In patients with IE, warfarin use within 14 days of diagnosis may have mortality benefits, despite increased risks of intracranial hemorrhage.

Evaluating the Patient Boarding during Omicron Surge in Hong Kong: Time Series Analysis.

The fifth wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong (HK) from January to March 2022 has the highest confirmed cases and deaths compared with previous waves. Severe hospital boarding (to inpatient wards) was noted in various Emergency Departments (EDs). Our objective is to identify factors associated with hospital boarding during Omicron surge in HK. We conducted a retrospective cohort study including all ED visits and inpatient (IP) ward admissions from January 1st to March 31st, 2022. Vector Autoregression model evaluated the effects of a single variable on the targeted hospital boarding variables. Admissions from elderly homes with 6 lag days held the highest positive value of statistical significance (t-stat = 2.827, P < .05) caused prolonged admission waiting time, while medical patients with 4 lag days had the highest statistical significance (t-stat = 2.530, P < .05) caused an increased number of boarding patients. Within one week after impulses, medical occupancy's influence on the waiting time varied from 0.289 on the 1st day to -0.315 on the 7th day. While occupancy of medical wards always positively affected blocked number of patients, and its response was maximized at 0.309 on the 2nd day. Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was not the sole significant contributor, while occupancy of medical wards was still a critical factor associated with patient boarding. Increasing ward capacity and controlling occupancy were suggested during the outbreak. Moreover, streamlining elderly patients in ED could be an approach to relieve pressure on the healthcare system.

Association of Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir with reduced mortality and sepsis in hospitalized omicron patients: a territory-wide study.

This study evaluates the association between antivirals (Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir) and all-cause and respiratory mortality and organ dysfunction among high-risk COVID-19 patients during an Omicron outbreak. Two cohorts, Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir versus control and Molnupiravir versus control, were constructed with inverse probability treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association of their use with all-cause mortality, respiratory mortality, and all-cause sepsis (a composite of circulatory shock, respiratory failure, acute liver injury, coagulopathy, and acute liver impairment). Patients recruited were hospitalized and diagnosed with the COVID-19 Omicron variant between February 22, 2022 and April 15, 2022, and followed up until May 15, 2022. The study included 17,704 patients. There were 4.67 and 22.7 total mortalities per 1000 person-days in the Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir and control groups respectively before adjustment (weighted incidence rate ratio, - 18.1 [95% CI - 23.0 to - 13.2]; hazard ratio, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.11-0.29]). There were 6.64 and 25.9 total mortalities per 1000 person-days in the Molnupiravir and control groups respectively before adjustment (weighted incidence rate ratio per 1000 person-days, - 19.3 [95% CI - 22.6 to - 15.9]; hazard ratio, 0.23 [95% CI 0.18-0.30]). In all-cause sepsis, there were 13.7 and 35.4 organ dysfunction events per 1000 person-days in the Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir and control groups respectively before adjustment (weighted incidence rate ratio per 1000 person-days, - 21.7 [95% CI - 26.3 to - 17.1]; hazard ratio, 0.44 [95% CI 0.38-0.52]). There were 23.7 and 40.8 organ dysfunction events in the Molnupiravir and control groups respectively before adjustment (weighted incidence ratio per 1000 person-days, - 17.1 [95% CI, - 20.6 to - 13.6]; hazard ratio, 0.63 [95% CI 0.58-0.69]). Among COVID-19 hospitalized patients, use of either Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir or Molnupiravir compared with no antiviral use was associated with a significantly lower incidence of 28-days all-cause and respiratory mortality and sepsis.

Association of Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir with preventable mortality, hospital admissions and related avoidable healthcare system cost among high-risk patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.

Background: Real-world data is currently limited on the association between oral antiviral therapy and healthcare system burden in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. This study aims to evaluate the clinical and cost effectiveness of Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir use in reducing mortality in this population. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study involving 54,355 COVID-19 patients during February 22-March 31,2022 in Hong Kong. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust patient characteristics. Our exposure of interest was Molnupiravir/Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir prescription, with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome. IPTW-adjusted multivariate regressions were used to estimate treatment impact on clinic re-attendance and unplanned admissions. Finally, attributed cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were estimated. Findings: In the outpatient cohort (N = 33,217, 61.1%), 16.1% used Molnupiravir and 13.4% used Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir, while in the inpatient cohort (N = 21,138, 38.9%), 3.8% used Molnupiravir and 1.3% used Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir. IPTW-adjusted Cox model estimated that Molnupiravir (hazard ratio (HR)(95%CI)=0.31 (0.24-0.40), P< 0.0001) and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir (HR=0.10 (95%CI 0.05-0.21), P< 0.0001) were significantly associated with a reduced mortality hazard. In the outpatient cohort, both antiviral prescriptions were associated with reduced odds for unplanned hospital admissions (Molnupiravir: odds ratio (OR) =0.72 (0.52-0.98), P=0.039; Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir: OR=0.37 (0.23-0.60), P<0.0001). Among hospitalised patients, both antiviral prescriptions were associated with significant reductions in the odds ratios for 28-days readmission (Molnupiravir: OR=0.71 (0.52-0.97), P=0.031; Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir: OR=0.47 (0.24-0.93), P=0.030). ICERs for death averted for Molnupiravir stood at USD493,345.09 in outpatient settings and USD2,629.08 in inpatient settings. In outpatient settings, Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir cost USD331,105.27 to avert one death, but saved USD5,502.53 to avert one death in comparison with standard care. Interpretation: In high-risk patients in Hong Kong with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir prescriptions were associated with reduced all-cause mortality and significant cost savings. Funding: Centre for Health Systems & Policy Research is funded by The Tung's Foundation; and The Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited(D24H) is funded the AIR@InnoHK platform administered by the Innovation and Technology Commission of Hong Kong. Funders did not have any role in study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation and writing of this manuscript.